The Unseen Battleground Beneath the Waves
While we often associate geopolitics with land disputes and diplomatic maneuvers, a critical and largely unseen arena lies beneath our oceans: the vast network of undersea cables. These cables are the backbone of global communication, transmitting over 95% of international data. With such strategic importance, you might presume undersea cables would be well secured in practice and with formal protections under international law. Unfortunately, the reality is anything but watertight. Threats to undersea cables are increasing. These cables are vulnerable to intentional sabotage just as they are to accidental damage, which has many raising pressing questions about global security and the flow of information.
What in the World is Geopolitics, and What is it to Me?
Before we get all out to sea on cables, let’s pause for a minute. Geopolitics sounds like one of those big, abstract terms reserved for politicians, military strategists and think tank analysts. So, what in the world is geopolitics? At its core, geopolitics is the way geography, power, and human ambition intersect. It’s about who controls what, who wants more and what they’re willing to do to get it. If that sounds high stakes, it’s because it is.
But what is geopolitics to me? Think of it like this: if you rely on the internet, global trade, or even just your morning coffee, geopolitics is shaping your life. It determines:
Who owns the infrastructure you depend on, from the fiber-optic cables under the ocean to the satellites overhead.
Who controls the resources and supply chains that make modern life possible.
Who holds the power to disrupt, manipulate or secure those systems.
So, what is geopolitics to you? It’s the invisible hand shaping everything from the speed of your internet to the stability of the world order. And what’s more, what happens under the sea can change what happens above it.
Geopolitics Below the Surface
When we talk about undersea cables, we’re not just talking about technology—we’re talking about who holds the upper hand.
If a country wants to monitor global communications, owning or influencing subsea cables is a major advantage.
If a rival power wants to cripple an economy or send a message, severing a few well-placed cables can cause chaos.
If a corporation wants unrestricted access to data flows, it might bypass traditional cables altogether and build its own.
In 2023, NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security described undersea cables as an economic lynchpin, carrying an estimated $10 trillion worth of financial transactions every day. No surprise then that NATO continues to strengthen its protection of undersea critical infrastructure, most recently by launching a new military activity “Baltic Sentry” to enhance NATO’s military presence in the Baltic Sea.
Baltic Sentry stresses the importance of synchronizing multi-domain activities, allied collaboration alongside public-private partnerships, and the deployment of new technologies. Getting these elements right is critical to ensuring infrastructure is secured in the midst of any dynamic, global power struggle. As NATO sharpens its focus on protecting critical infrastructure, open-source intelligence (OSINT) will play a key role in turning strategy into action.
OSINT Ahoy!
OSINT can play a critical role in identifying threats and mitigating vulnerabilities in critical undersea infrastructure. OSINT helps plot what’s happening in the murky depths—literally and figuratively. Whether it’s tracking suspicious ship movements near critical cables, analysing new infrastructure deals, or monitoring real-time data disruptions, OSINT provides the tools to illuminate what others would rather keep below the surface. What’s more, OSINT is often more readily shareable compared to intelligence derived from classified collection activities, enabling rapid international collaboration, ensuring that intelligence moves at the speed of emerging threats, and bridging gaps between governments, industry and allied forces in real time.
The Baltic Sea Incident: A Case Study in Cable Vulnerability
In November 2024, two significant undersea cables in the Baltic Sea—the BCS East-West Interlink and C-Lion1—were severed within hours of each other. The BCS East-West Interlink connected Lithuania and Sweden, while C-Lion1 linked Finland and Germany. The disruptions of these geographically distinct cables raised immediate suspicions of coordinated sabotage, with a Chinese-registered bulk carrier, Yi Peng 3, being the focus of investigations because it was in the vicinity at the time. Investigations into the incident -which have included international collaboration - have identified multiple potential causes for the damage (ranging from an accident, to an act of sabotage, to possible hybrid warfare), but definitive conclusions have not been established and diplomatic tensions remain high.
While the tandem severing of these two undersea cables posed a serious threat to regional internet and communications, the combination of resilient infrastructure and contingency responses by the communications providers meant that the practical impact on the general population was, this time at least, minimal. Strategically, however, this incident underscores the delicate nature of undersea infrastructure and highlights the challenges in attributing responsibility for such disruptions. The geopolitical ramifications are profound, as nations grapple with safeguarding these vital communication arteries against both accidental and deliberate threats.
The Role of OSINT in Monitoring and Protection
OSINT has become an invaluable tool in monitoring the integrity of undersea cables. By analysing publicly available data—such as ship movements, satellite imagery, and maritime traffic records—analysts can detect anomalies that may indicate potential threats.
For instance, in the Baltic Sea incident:
Ship Tracking/position data: Automatic Identification System (AIS) data was used to trace the Yi Peng 3's route, identifying suspicious patterns or movement and periods of signal loss.
Anchor Analysis: Drone imagery was used as possible evidence that the poor condition of one of the ship's anchors might be linked to the incident.
Geopolitical Context: By correlating the incident with regional geopolitical tensions, OSINT helped frame the event within a broader narrative of infrastructure vulnerability.
These methods demonstrate OSINT's role in investigating incidents and informing both national security strategies and public awareness.
And OSINT’s role in maritime investigations doesn’t stop there. As OSINT Combine’s Emerald Sage wrote in her 2023 article, Shining a light on AIS Blackouts with maritime OSINT, there are a range of other OSINT avenues that may unlock critical insights, including:
Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT): Analysing social media profiles and posts can provide insights into vessel ownership, crew activities, and potential links to illicit operations.
Company-related data: Investigating corporate records can help uncover complex ownership structures, including shell companies used to evade sanctions or conceal illegal activities.
Geospatial tools: Utilising mapping applications, satellite imagery, and webcam footage can aid in tracking vessel movements, assessing port activities, and verifying AIS data accuracy.
Conclusion: The Personal Relevance of Subsea Geopolitics
While the issue of undersea cables may seem like a distant concern, their impact is woven into our everyday lives. Disruptions can affect everything from international business transactions to personal communications. Understanding the geopolitical dynamics that impact these infrastructures empowers us to advocate for stronger protections and appreciate the complex systems that underpin our digital lives.
As the world becomes even more interconnected and geopolitical tensions rise, staying informed and prepared has never been more important. In this context, OSINT is a vital tool that helps governments, industry, and security professionals anticipate and respond to emerging threats.
Want to dive deeper into the power of OSINT? At OSINT Combine, we specialize in building enduring OSINT capability in your organization with our internationally trusted training and OSINT software, NexusXplore. If you’d like to see NexusXplore's recently upgraded maritime capabilities in action, request a demo today!